Evidence map›Paper›PMID 9443863›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of human genetics1998

Determining carrier probabilities for breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2.

G Parmigiani, D Berry, O Aguilar

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of human genetics, 1998. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 255 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
255citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
11.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT02620852 narecruitingnot on this mapstarted 2016, after this paper: background citation

Enabling a Paradigm Shift: A Preference-Tolerant RCT of Personalized vs. Annual Screening for Breast Cancer (Wisdom Study)

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of California, San FranciscoRan2016 to 2026Enrolled100,000ConditionsBreast Cancer Screening, Breast Carcinoma in Situ, Breast CancerArmsComplete a health questionnaire, Provide a saliva sample for genetic testing, Screening advice based on a comprehensive risk assessment, Screening advice based on a basic risk assessment
NCT06564428 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

A Cohort Study of Hereditary Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models and Pathogenesis Exploration

TypeobservationalSponsorPeking University Third HospitalRan2024 to 2026Enrolled1,000ConditionsOvarian NeoplasmsArmsSuspective gene mutations and family history
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

255 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 756 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  14. Large-Scale Population Screening forBreast care (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
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  16. Article
  17. Article
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  20. Article

195 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

G ParmigianiInstitute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0251, USA. gp@isds.duke.edu
D Berry
O Aguilar
Duke University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 have recently been identified on the human genome. Women who carry a mutation of one of these genes have a greatly increased chance of developing breast and ovarian cancer, and they usually develop the disease at a much younger age, compared with normal individuals. Women can be tested to see whether they are carriers. A woman who undergoes genetic counseling before testing can be told the probabilities that she is a carrier, given her family history. In this paper we develop a model for evaluating the probabilities that a woman is a carrier of a mutation of BRCA1 and BRCA2, on the basis of her family history of breast and ovarian cancer in first- and second-degree relatives. Of special importance are the relationships of the family members with cancer, the ages at onset of the diseases, and the ages of family members who do not have the diseases. This information can be elicited during genetic counseling and prior to genetic testing. The carrier probabilities are obtained from Bayes's rule, by use of family history as the evidence and by use of the mutation prevalences as the prior distribution. In addressing an individual's carrier probabilities, we incorporate uncertainty about some of the key inputs of the model, such as the age-specific incidence of diseases and the overall prevalence of mutations. There is some evidence that other, undiscovered genes may be important in explaining familial breast cancer. Users of the current version of the model should be aware of this limitation. The methodology that we describe can be extended to more than two genes, should data become available about other genes.

Indexed as

Genes, BRCA1HeterozygoteModels, TheoreticalBRCA2 ProteinBreast NeoplasmsFemaleGenetic TestingHumansLikelihood FunctionsMaleModels, StatisticalMutationNeoplasm ProteinsPedigreeProbabilityTranscription FactorsBRCA2 ProteinNeoplasm ProteinsTranscription Factors

Identifiers

PMID9443863
PMCPMC1376797
OpenAlexW2005351661

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.