Life expectancy in men who have never smoked and those who have smoked continuously: 15 year follow up of large cohort of middle aged British men.

objectiveTo estimate the life expectancy in a representative sample of men who have never smoked and of those who have smoked all their adult lives.

design15 year follow up of a large representative cohort of British men in the British regional heart study and use of national mortality statistics for 1992. SUBJECTS: 7735 middle aged British men aged 40-59 at the time of screening (between 1978 and 1980).

main outcome measuresMortality from all causes and from smoking related causes.

results1624 men had never smoked at the time of screening and did not take up smoking during the study. 127 of them died during follow up. 3151 men began smoking before they were 30 and were still smoking at the time of screening. Of these, 751 had stopped smoking five years after screening; they were excluded from the analysis five years after the date they had stopped. 560 of the lifelong smokers died during follow up. When study estimates were combined with those from national mortality statistics for men aged 20-40, only an estimated 42% (95% confidence interval 36% to 50%) of lifelong smokers alive at the age of 20 would be alive at 73, compared with 78% (74% to 82%) of lifelong non-smokers.

conclusionThese estimates present the effects of smoking on mortality in a way that is easily communicated to patients and the general public in health promotion initiatives.