Evidence map›Paper›PMID 8518602›Full record

SynthesisBMJ (Clinical research ed.)1993

Cholesterol lowering and mortality: the importance of considering initial level of risk.

G D Smith, F Song, T A Sheldon

Erratum issuedOpen access · bronzeAbstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 1993. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 75 papers, 15 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
75citing papers in PubMed, 15 pooled it
28.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

75 citing papers in PubMed, 15 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 428 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Reduction in saturated fat intake for cardiovascular disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020
    Pooled it
  4. Reduction in saturated fat intake for cardiovascular disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020
    Pooled it
  5. Reduced or modified dietary fat for preventing cardiovascular disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2012
    Pooled it
  6. Reduced or modified dietary fat for preventing cardiovascular disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2011
    Pooled it
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  9. Guideline
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  16. Trial
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15 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

G D SmithDepartment of Public Health, University of Glasgow.
F Song
T A Sheldon
University of Glasgow · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo investigate the level of risk of death from coronary heart disease above which cholesterol lowering treatment produces net benefits.

designMeta-analysis of results of randomised controlled trials of cholesterol lowering treatments.

methodsPublished and unpublished data from all identified randomised controlled trials of cholesterol lowering treatments with six months or more follow up and with at least one death were included in the meta-analysis. The analyses were stratified by the rate of death from coronary heart disease in the control arms of the trials.

main outcome measuresDeath from all causes, from coronary heart disease, and from causes other than coronary heart disease.

resultsIn the pooled analysis, net benefit in terms of total mortality from cholesterol lowering was seen only for trials including patients at very high initial risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.92). In a medium risk group no net effect was seen, and in the low risk group there were adverse treatment effects (1.22; 1.06 to 1.42). In a weighted regression analysis a significant (p < 0.001) trend of increasing benefit with increasing initial risk of coronary heart disease was shown. Raised mortality from causes other than coronary heart disease was seen in trials of drug treatment (1.21; 1.05 to 1.39) but not in the trials of non-drug treatments (1.02; 0.88 to 1.19). Cumulative meta-analysis showed that these results seem to have been stable as new trials appeared.

conclusionCurrently evaluated cholesterol lowering drugs seem to produce mortality benefits in only a small proportion of patients at very high risk of death from coronary heart disease. Population cholesterol screening could waste resources and even result in net harm in substantial groups of patients. Overall risk of coronary heart disease should be the main focus of clinical guidelines, and a cautious approach to the use of cholesterol lowering drugs should be advocated. Future trials should aim to clarify the level of risk above which treatment is of net benefit.

Indexed as

CholesterolCoronary DiseaseHumansHypercholesterolemiaHypolipidemic AgentsRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicRiskRisk FactorsCholesterolHypolipidemic Agents

Identifiers

PMID8518602
PMCPMC1677836
OpenAlexW2086705478

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.