Predicting under-five child mortality in Zambia: Machine learning versus parametric survival models.

backgroundIn sub-Saharan Africa, child mortality remains a critical public health challenge, with Zambia exhibiting some of the highest rates in the region. While survival analysis has identified key risk factors, these methods often fail to capture complex non-linear interactions and the dynamic, time-varying nature of longitudinal markers like birth intervals. This study aimed to develop and compare predictive survival models to improve risk stratification for under-five mortality using the 2024 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS).

methodsA cohort of 35,610 live births was initially identified, with a final analytic sample of 9,362 singleton births and 1,236 mortality events (13.2%) after applying exclusion criteria for maternal age and data completeness. We compared four modeling frameworks for predictive comparison: Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH), Lasso Cox regression, Random Survival Forests (RSF), and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), alongside a Bayesian Joint Model for inference on the birth interval and mortality association. The proportional hazards assumption was assessed using Schoenfeld residuals, and stratified Cox models were employed to address time-varying effects. Model performance was evaluated using nested cross-validation with mother-level outer folds and time-dependent Concordance Indices (C-index) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) metrics across a 48-month follow-up period.

resultsUnder nested cross-validation, the four survival models demonstrated comparable predictive performance, with C-indices ranging from 0.745 (Cox PH) to 0.750 (Gradient Boosting Machine) and Integrated Brier Scores ranging from 0.095 to 0.096; pairwise comparisons across models were not statistically significant (DeLong's test: all p > 0.05). The Bayesian Joint Model revealed a significant association between the longitudinal birth interval process and the hazard of death ([Formula: see text], 95% CI: 0.023-0.048, p < 0.001), supporting the maternal depletion hypothesis. Variable importance analysis identified birth interval and maternal age as the most influential predictors of child survival, followed by previous child deaths. Stratified analysis of the Cox model revealed significant effects for maternal education (Secondary: HR = 0.426, 95% CI: 0.318-0.570) and previous child deaths (HR = 1.648, 95% CI: 1.529-1.777).

conclusionAdvanced survival modeling using joint modeling techniques provides deeper biological insights into child mortality dynamics, and machine learning and traditional survival models offered equivalent predictive discrimination and calibration in this analysis. These findings support targeted public health interventions focusing on birth spacing, maternal age, and enhanced monitoring for high-risk families as critical strategies for reducing under-five mortality in Zambia.