Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42904486›Full record

ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis2026

Modeling Exposure-Mortality Relationships for Indoor Heat.

Andrew Ibbetson, Charles Simpson, Giorgos Petrou, Eleni Oikonomou, Anna Mavrogianni, Rajat Gupta, Mike Davies, Ai Milojevic

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Andrew IbbetsonInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8286-9678
Charles SimpsonInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9356-5833
Giorgos PetrouInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1524-2681
Eleni OikonomouInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8136-7696
Anna MavrogianniInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5104-1238
Rajat GuptaLow Carbon Building Research Group, School of Architecture, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8959-0251
Mike DaviesInstitute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2173-7063
Ai MilojevicDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8680-6843

Funding

Natural Environment Research Council NE/S016767/1Natural Environment Research Council NE/T013729/1Natural Environment Research Council NE/Y503253/1UK Research and Innovation Building a Green Future strategic theme UKRI278UK Research and Innovation Building a Green Future strategic theme, the National Institute for Health and Care Research, Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council APP28678MR/Z506564/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 209387/Z/17/ZWellcome Trust 227123/Z/23/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Most individuals spend the majority of their time indoors. However, epidemiological evidence of the association between heat and mortality is dominated by studies using outdoor temperature as a proxy for personal exposure. To demonstrate how an exposure-response relationship between indoor heat and mortality may relate to that between outdoor heat and mortality, we develop a novel mathematical modeling approach. This approachuses the relationship between regional daily average indoor and outdoor temperature to map the exposure-response relationship for outdoor heat, estimated by epidemiological studies, to indoor heat. Due to the modifying effect of buildings on heat exposure, we show that a change in indoor temperature may be associated with a greater change in mortality than an equal change in outdoor temperature. This has implications for researchers seeking to assess the health impact of changes in indoor heat exposure. Furthermore, it provides a new theoretical  framework for interpreting potential differences in the temperature-mortality relationship of indoor and outdoor heat exposure in epidemiological studies.

Indexed as

Environmental ExposureHot TemperatureMortalityHumansModels, Theoreticalheat healthheat‐related mortalityindoor heatmathematical modelingoverheating

Identifiers

PMID42904486
PMCPMC13685053

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.