Analysis of Lassa Fever Incidence in Nigeria Demonstrates a Clear Climate-Disease Interaction.

Lassa fever remains a major public health concern in Nigeria, where climatic variability, ecological dynamics, and socio-behavioral factors combine to influence transmission patterns. This review synthesizes current evidence on how atmospheric conditions shape Lassa fever incidence through their effects on ecosystems, rodent reservoirs, and human exposure pathways. Drawing on studies in epidemiology, disease ecology, climate science and remote sensing, the review highlights that temperature, rainfall, humidity, vegetation change and large-scale climatic oscillations all contribute to fluctuations in Mastomys natalensis populations which serve as the primary reservoir of Lassa virus. These climatic drivers modify food availability, breeding cycles and habitat suitability for rodents which in turn affect the probability of viral spillover. Modeling approaches including statistical regression, time series analysis, ecological niche modeling and spatiotemporal remote sensing demonstrate that environmental variables significantly improve predictions of disease risk. However, important gaps remain including limited long-term ecological data, underreporting in surveillance systems, insufficient integration of rodent ecology with climate data and a need for more comprehensive socio-behavioral studies. The review recommends future directions such as sustained monitoring of Mastomys populations, high-resolution climate-sensitive modeling, genomic analysis of Lassa virus across climatic gradients and multidisciplinary approaches that combine environmental science with public health research. Improving climate-informed surveillance and early warning systems is essential for strengthening preparedness and reducing the burden of Lassa fever in Nigeria.