ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Analysis and prediction of trends in birth population and HBsAg-positive pregnant women in Zaozhuang City, 2012-2024.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: To analyze trends and project future changes in birth population and HBsAg-positive pregnant women in Zaozhuang City from 2012 to 2024, providing baseline data and evidence for optimizing resource allocation and formulating strategies to eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV). Methods: Data on annual births and HBsAg-positive pregnant women were col from the Zaozhuang Statistical Yearbook and the Shandong Provincial Immunization Program Information System (2012 -2024). Birth rate and maternal HBsAg prevalence were calculated. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Curve regression models were fitted to project 2025 levels. Time series analysis based on monthly data was performed for forecasting. Results: The birth rate declined significantly overall (AAPC = -6.676%, Conclusion: Fertility levels and maternal HBsAg prevalence in Zaozhuang City exhibit sustained declining trends. The fitted model can be used for short-term prediction, providing robust evidence to inform regional healthcare resource planning and the development of comprehensive interventions to eliminate HBV MTCT.
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