Does learning burnout link physical exercise and problematic short-video use? Evidence from a three-wave random-intercept cross-lagged panel model and supplementary machine-learning analysis among Chinese high school students.

Background: Problematic short-video use has become a growing behavioral health concern among adolescents, yet its longitudinal links with physical exercise and learning burnout remain insufficiently understood. This study examined the within-person bidirectional associations among physical exercise, learning burnout, and problematic short-video use, tested whether learning burnout served as a longitudinal pathway linking physical exercise to later problematic short-video use, and explored the predictive value of these variables for subsequent problematic short-video use. Methods: A three-wave longitudinal survey with 6-month intervals was conducted among 1,327 students aged 16-18 years from five high schools in Yunnan Province, China. Physical exercise, learning burnout, and problematic short-video use were assessed using the Physical Activity Rating Scale-3 (PARS-3), the Adolescent Student Burnout Inventory, and the Short-Video Addiction Scale. Random-intercept cross-lagged panel modeling was used to separate stable between-person differences from within-person fluctuations while controlling for demographic and educational covariates. The longitudinal indirect association was estimated using 5,000 bias-corrected bootstrap samples. Supplementary ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting models, using nested cross-validation and a holdout test set, examined the incremental predictive value of physical exercise and learning burnout for later problematic short-video use. Results: At the between-person level, higher long-term physical exercise was associated with lower learning burnout and problematic short-video use, whereas higher learning burnout was associated with higher problematic short-video use. At the within-person level, higher-than-usual physical exercise predicted lower subsequent learning burnout and problematic short-video use. Learning burnout and problematic short-video use showed positive reciprocal associations over time, and both predicted lower subsequent physical exercise. The longitudinal indirect association from physical exercise to later problematic short-video use through learning burnout was statistically significant but small. In supplementary machine-learning analyses, the best holdout Conclusion: Physical exercise, learning burnout, and problematic short-video use showed interconnected longitudinal associations among Chinese high school students. Learning burnout may represent one small longitudinal indirect pathway linking physical exercise to later problematic short-video use, while recent problematic short-video use provides the most informative signal for future risk. These findings may inform the development and evaluation of school-based health-promotion strategies that support physical exercise, address learning burnout, and respond to recent problematic-use symptoms.