Resection rates after conversion therapy for initially unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Conversion therapy may create an opportunity for liver resection in selected patients with initially unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but reported conversion rates use heterogeneous denominators and endpoints. We estimated actual completed hepatectomy using a verified all-treated denominator. Methods: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane Library/CENTRAL, Wanfang Data, and CNKI were searched through April 10, 2026. Eligible cohorts included initially or baseline unresectable HCC, an all-treated denominator, and completed liver resection events. Two authors independently assessed eligibility, extracted data, and evaluated risk of bias. Random-effects logit proportion meta-analysis, Hartung-Knapp sensitivity, prediction intervals, leave-one-out analyses, treatment-strategy subgroups, publication-year meta-regression, and small-study-effect diagnostics were undertaken. PROSPERO: CRD420261360108. Results: Thirty-seven reports represented 36 unique studies; 34 studies involving 5,137 patients and 1,042 completed hepatectomies entered the quantitative synthesis. The crude aggregate resection rate was 20.3% (1,042/5,137), whereas the random-effects modeled pooled rate was 25.40% (95% CI, 20.74%-30.69%; I Conclusions: Approximately one-quarter of patients initiating conversion therapy underwent actual hepatectomy, but the crude and modeled estimates differ because substantial heterogeneity changes random-effects study weighting. The pooled estimate is a cross-study, cross-era benchmark for multidisciplinary decision-making rather than a universal patient-level probability or a treatment-specific efficacy estimate. Systematic Review Registration: www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD420261360108.