ArticleMedicine2026
Contributions of smoking behaviour to lung cancer subtypes: A two-sample Mendelian randomization study.
Article in Medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Smoking is an established cause of lung cancer (LC), but the relative causal contributions of whether a person ever smokes and how heavily they smoke across histological subtypes remain uncertain. This study investigated the causal effects of smoking status and smoking intensity on major LC subtypes. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed. Genetic instruments were drawn from the GWAS and Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine Use: 85 variants for smoking status, a binary trait contrasting ever with never smokers, and 23 variants for smoking intensity, a continuous trait measuring cigarettes smoked per day. Outcomes were 5 LC phenotypes from FinnGen: non-small cell LC (1627 cases), adenocarcinoma (571), squamous cell carcinoma (365), small cell LC (179), and mesothelioma (133). Inverse-variance weighted regression with multiplicative random effects was the primary estimator, with weighted median, weighted mode, and MR-Egger as sensitivity analyses. Benjamini-Hochberg correction was applied across all ten tests. Analyses used R 4.2.3 with TwoSampleMR 0.7.9. Smoking intensity was causally associated with all 4 smoking-related subtypes: squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio [OR]: 5.95 per standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.12-11.37), small cell LC (OR: 4.43, 95% CI: 1.60-12.32), non-small cell LC (OR: 3.45, 95% CI: 2.30-5.18), and adenocarcinoma (OR: 2.66, 95% CI: 1.40-5.06). All 4 survived correction for multiple testing and were reproduced by the weighted median and weighted mode estimators. Smoking status showed positive point estimates for all 4 subtypes (OR: 1.40-1.61) but reached only nominal significance for non-small cell LC (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.04-2.19, P = .030), which did not survive correction and was not reproduced by other estimators. Neither exposure was associated with mesothelioma. Smoking intensity shows robust causal effects on all smoking-related LC subtypes, whereas the evidence for smoking status is directionally consistent but considerably weaker. The null finding for mesothelioma, a cancer principally caused by asbestos, supports the specificity of the instruments. These results indicate that reducing consumption among established smokers warrants emphasis alongside preventing uptake.
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