Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42886772›Full record

ArticleScience advances2026

Forcing closure suggests stronger aerosol forcing and higher climate sensitivity than the consensus.

Tianle Yuan, Hua Song, Senne Van Loon, Ryan Kramer, Lazaros Oreopoulos, Piers M Forster

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Tianle YuanEarth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2187-3017
Hua SongEarth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2499-0566
Senne Van LoonDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7868-3943
Ryan KramerGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, US Department of Commerce, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9377-0674
Lazaros OreopoulosEarth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6061-6905
Piers M ForsterPriestley Centre for Climate Futures, University of Leeds, Woodhouse, LS2 9JT Leeds, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6078-0171

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Forcing together with radiative responses and natural variability has sharply increased Earth's energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, between 2003 and 2023. Declining anthropogenic aerosol emissions and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are the leading contributors to the forcing. However, observation-based and model-based forcing estimates disagree on the magnitude of aerosol forcing, particularly for effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF

Identifiers

PMID42886772
PMCPMC13674507

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.