ArticleAnnals of medicine2026
The macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China, 1990-2023, and projections to 2030: results from GBD 2023.
Article in Annals of medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundAlcohol consumption contributes markedly to the global burden of disease, but macroeconomic assessments of alcohol-attributable diseases in China remain limited. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study quantified the macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China: alcohol use disorders (AUD), alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM), cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use (ALD), and liver cancer due to alcohol use (LCA). MATERIALS AND
methodsDisability-adjusted life year (DALY) data for the four diseases from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from GBD 2023. The macroeconomic burden was estimated using the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which combined DALYs with age-adjusted value of a statistical life year (VSLY) estimates derived from willingness-to-pay methodology. Results are expressed in 2021 international dollars and as a percentage of GDP. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression analysis, and exploratory forecasts to 2030 were generated using ARIMA, XGBoost, and LightGBM models.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2023, VLW increased substantially for all four diseases: AUD from $1.84 billion to $32.40 billion; ACM, $0.04 to $0.53 billion; ALD, $0.22 to $3.26 billion; and LCA, $0.09 to $2.48 billion. Joinpoint regression confirmed continuously increasing trends (all AAPC > 0, all
conclusionThe macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China increased markedly from 1990 to 2023, with AUD consistently dominating and the burden overwhelmingly concentrated among males aged 35-64 years.
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