ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Modeling the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Dengue fever has become an epidemiological concern worldwide, with 531,617 cases reported in Argentina during the 2023-2024 season. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been linked to changes in dengue dynamics. This study assessed the relationships among ENSO, local climatic variables, and dengue outbreaks in Argentina from 2018 to 2024. Methods: A nationwide spatiotemporal analysis was conducted using dengue cases and monthly mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used as the ENSO indicator (El Niño phase ≤ -0.5, neutral phase = -0.5 to 0.5, and La Niña phase ≥ 0.5). We fitted Hierarchical Bayesian models with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). A Negative Binomial distribution of dengue cases was used to account for overdispersion. Spatial dependence was modeled by using the Besag-York-Mollié 2 (BYM2) structure, adjusted for population. Results: The final model achieved a Nagelkerke pseudo-R Conclusion: Dengue outbreaks in Argentina were independently associated with temperatures between 20 and 30 °C during the El Niño and neutral phases, humidity > 50% during the La Niña phase, and the El Niño phase of the ENSO. Incorporating ENSO indices into predictive models could enhance early warning systems and timely public health interventions in Argentina.
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