Trial reportFrontiers in immunology2026
Cardiovascular and mortality outcomes with JAK versus TNF inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis: a target trial emulation (CARDINAL-RA).
Trial report in Frontiers in immunology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Objectives: This study aims to compare cardiovascular and mortality outcomes of Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) versus tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at elevated cardiovascular risk using target trial emulation. Methods: Within TriNetX, adults with RA aged ≥50 years and ≥1 cardiovascular risk factor initiating JAKi or TNFi were compared in a new-user, active-comparator design. Improved 1:1 propensity score matching incorporated demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, comorbidities, individual conventional synthetic DMARDs, oral corticosteroids, prior non-TNF biologic exposure, and baseline inflammatory markers. The primary outcome was MACE (nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal ischemic stroke); the secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure hospitalization, and venous thromboembolism (VTE), with cataract as a prespecified negative control. Follow-up began 90 days after initiation. Cox models estimated hazard ratios, with 5-year Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidences and absolute risk differences per 1,000. Cohorts were separately matched by agent, sex, cardiovascular-risk stratum, and index era; E-values quantified sensitivity to unmeasured confounding. Results: In 18,757 matched pairs, JAKi was not associated with excess MACE (HR 1.002, 0.923-1.088; +2.11 per 1,000). All-cause mortality, a secondary outcome, was higher with JAKi (HR 1.158, 1.058-1.268; Conclusion: JAKi initiation was not associated with excess MACE (primary outcome), heart failure hospitalization, or VTE. A modest excess in all-cause mortality was observed as a secondary outcome, with no signal for any individual agent. This association was of modest robustness (E-value 1.586) and was not reproduced in any agent-specific cohort, so residual channeling bias cannot be excluded. The null MACE result should not be read as class-wide cardiovascular safety reassurance nor the mortality signal as an established causal effect.
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