ArticleNature communications2026
Sero-catalytic and spatial modeling of dengue virus force of infection in Timor-Leste.
Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
25 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) infection causes significant morbidity and mortality across tropical and sub-tropical regions, including in Timor-Leste. In this study we present the results of a national, population-representative serological survey, used to determine the drivers of observed variations in DENV force-of-infection (FOI, i.e. the average annual per-capita risk of infection for a susceptible person) at high spatial resolution. Households were randomly selected from census data and occupants aged above one year were tested using the Panbio Indirect dengue IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay between October 2021 and February 2023. Sero-catalytic models accounting for household effect were applied to estimate the DENV FOI in enumeration areas (EAs, roughly equivalent to neighbourhoods/villages). Spatial models were applied to the local FOI estimates to assess their associations with climate and environmental factors, and to predict the FOI across the rest of Timor-Leste. A total of 4780 individuals from 1755 households across 102 EAs participated. DENV seroprevalence and FOI estimates were highly spatially heterogeneous across Timor-Leste, ranging from 0.010 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.005, 0.018) in EA 10104032 in Fatubossa, municipality Aileu, to 0.519 (0.295, 0.816) in EA 40403012 in Goulolo, municipality Bobonaro. Relative humidity was negatively associated with DENV FOI. The spatial models predicted highest DENV FOI along the Northern and Eastern coasts, with hotspots of transmission in Dili and Baucau cities. Findings will strengthen surveillance and guide the implementation of additional DENV control strategies such as Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes (currently being deployed in some parts of Timor-Leste), or vaccination.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.