Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42874165›Full record

Trial reportClinical and translational science2026

Analysis of Virologic and Clinical Predictors for Hospitalization, Supported by Machine Learning, in a Phase 3 Molnupiravir COVID-19 Treatment Trial.

Matthew G Johnson, Jessica M Conway, Laura E Liao, David W Hilbert, Erin Jensen, Dorothy McCoy, Yanfen Guan, Ying Zhang, Michelle L Brown, Dana D Byrne and 1 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readRandomized Controlled TrialClinical Trial, Phase III
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in Clinical and translational science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04575597 (A Phase 2/3, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of MK-4482 in Non-Hospitalized Adults With COVID-19.), which is not on this map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04575597 phase2 / phase3completednot on this map

A Phase 2/3, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of MK-4482 in Non-Hospitalized Adults With COVID-19.

TypeinterventionalSponsorMerck Sharp & Dohme LLCRan2020 to 2022Enrolled1,735ConditionsCoronavirus Disease (COVID-19)ArmsMolnupiravir, Placebo
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Trial
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Matthew G JohnsonMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6023-1252
Jessica M ConwayDepartment of Mathematics and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
Laura E LiaoMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6069-2633
David W HilbertMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.
Erin JensenMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.
Dorothy McCoyMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9130-462X
Yanfen GuanMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.
Ying ZhangMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.
Michelle L BrownMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5099-3192
Dana D ByrneMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.
Carisa De AndaMerck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6344-8123

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used in clinical medicine. The objective of this study was to identify factors predictive of hospitalization, with the support of ML, in outpatients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. Unvaccinated adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 were randomized 1:1 to molnupiravir or placebo in MOVe-OUT (NCT04575597). In this post hoc analysis, various factors were evaluated among participants who progressed or did not progress to hospitalization. ML was used as an unbiased method to evaluate multiple factors for their association with hospitalization in placebo-treated participants. Participants who progressed to hospitalization (HP) were more likely versus those who remained nonhospitalized (nonHP) to be male; age ≥ 65 years old; have active cancer, diabetes mellitus, moderate COVID-19, and negative nucleocapsid and neutralizing antibody status at baseline (study intervention Day 1). In HP, baseline mean viral load (VL) was 7.51 vs. 6.83 log

Indexed as

Antiviral AgentsCOVID-19COVID-19 Drug TreatmentHospitalizationMachine LearningSARS-CoV-2AgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsViral LoadAntiviral AgentsbiomarkersCOVID‐19hospitalizationmachine learningpredictors

Identifiers

PMID42874165
PMCPMC13668373

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.