ArticlePediatric surgery international2026
Childhood Inguinal, Femoral, and Abdominal Hernias in Low-Income Countries: Trends, Inequalities, and Projections to 2050.
Article in Pediatric surgery international, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeTo examine trends, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) associations, inequalities, and future burden of childhood inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia (IFAH) in low-income countries (LICs).
methodsGBD 2023 estimates for children aged 0-14 years in 25 LICs were analyzed for 1990-2023. Counts, crude rates, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), age- and sex-specific patterns, SDI associations, concentration indices, population-rate decomposition, lower-quantile benchmarking, and projections to 2050 were assessed.
resultsIn 2023, IFAH accounted for 253,424 incident cases, 377 deaths, and 67,970 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). From 1990 to 2023, incident cases increased by 64.38% and DALYs by 22.18%, whereas deaths decreased by 6.60%. Incidence, mortality, and DALY rates declined, with EAPCs of -0.62%, -2.54%, and -1.75%, respectively. Infants accounted for 64.12% of deaths and 46.72% of DALYs. Mortality and DALY rates were inversely associated with SDI and became increasingly concentrated in relatively lower-SDI countries. Population growth offset gains associated with declining rates. By 2050, incident cases, deaths, and DALYs were projected to reach 305,947, 422, and 77,279.
conclusionChildhood IFAH rates declined, but absolute burden remained substantial and may increase with population growth. Planning should prioritize infant care and LICs with high fatal and disabling burden.
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