ArticleMedical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran2026
A Decade of Discovery: Methodological Innovation, Capacity Building, and Global Leadership in Hidden Population Research in Iran.
Article in Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: In the early 2010s, Iran lacked reliable estimates of key populations at increased risk of HIV, including people who inject drugs, female sex workers, and men who have sex with men. This information gap limited evidence-based planning, resource allocation, and monitoring of HIV prevention programs. Methods: This paper reviews the development and achievements of Iran's population size estimation program over more than a decade. Drawing on program records, published studies, training activities, and policy contributions, we summarise the program's impact across research, education, and policy domains. Results: Research centres structured under the Institute for Futures Studies in Health (affiliated with Kerman University of Medical Sciences) combined expertise in modelling and public health to establish a national population size estimation program. The program generated population size estimates for key populations across Iran, produced a substantial body of scientific evidence, trained researchers and public health practitioners, strengthened institutional capacity, and contributed to HIV-related policy and planning. Its standing was further reinforced through regional recognition of the HIV/STI Surveillance Research Centre as a World Health Organisation Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance. Conclusion: The Iranian population size estimation program demonstrates how sustained collaboration between modelling and public health researchers can generate evidence, build national capacity, strengthen institutions, and support public health policy. The program provides a model for developing similar initiatives in other settings.
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