ArticleFrontiers in veterinary science2026
Epidemiological update on spatial and space-time clusters of African swine fever in the Philippines.
Article in Frontiers in veterinary science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
African swine fever (ASF), particularly the highly contagious Genotype II strain, is a transboundary viral disease causing up to 100% mortality in swine and threatening food security across the Asia-Pacific region. Since 2019, control strategies in the Philippines have relied on depopulation and strict administrative zoning to limit contiguous, land-based spread. However, the long-term effectiveness of these approaches within the country's fragmented archipelagic landscape remains poorly understood, complicating evidence-based resource allocation and preparedness for regional vaccination campaigns. Here we show that the endemic trajectory of ASF was highly non-uniform across the three main island groups of the Philippines from October 2022 to October 2024. Spatiotemporal analysis of a national surveillance dataset comprising 8,213 barangay-level events revealed twelve statistically significant retrospective space-time clusters-with radii up to 183.2 kilometers-and highly asynchronous regional epidemic waves across Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. Although crude case volumes were highest in Luzon (52.10%), followed by the Visayas (31.69%) and Mindanao (16.21%), accounting for swine population density reshaped the spatial distribution. Spatial mapping and a
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