Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42864349›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Predictability can be dynamically constructed in deterministic systems.

Lars Koopmans, Elinor M Kay, Hyun Youk

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Lars KoopmansDepartment of Physics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-8210-226X
Elinor M KayDepartment of Physics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA.
Hyun YoukDepartment of Physics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA. youk@illinois.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1687-5760

Funding

Dynamics in Eukaryotic Dormancy: Gene Expression and AgingR35GM147508 · NIGMS · UNIV OF MASSACHUSETTS MED SCH WORCESTER · PI Hyun Youk · 2022 to 2026
$2.1M
National Science Foundation (NSF) DBI 2243257NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM147508U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) GM147508
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A deterministic system's future can be fixed from the start yet remain unpredictable because of chaos or computational irreducibility. Here we reveal another source of unpredictability for non-chaotic deterministic systems: collective entities making the future legible are initially absent but dynamically constructed. In a generalized cellular automaton, disordered lattices evolved into static configurations, rectilinear waves, or spiral waves. Although initial configurations fixed each fate, machine-learning models did no better than randomly guessing fates from them. Recoding cell states geometrically revealed self-organization of prediction-enabling topological entities: vortices, non-contractible-loop strings, and, most generally, a winding field describing how same-state regions wrap the lattice. As the winding field self-organized, initially unpredictable fates became increasingly legible. Static and rectilinear-wave fates became progressively predictable, whereas spiral-wave fate became accurately predictable only near wave formation. These results establish that self-organization can build not merely order but entities that make certain futures visible, revealing a gap between determinism and practical predictability.

Identifiers

PMID42864349
PMCPMC13658131

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.