Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model.

Mattia Poinelli, Eric Rignot, Hélène Seroussi, Joshua Cuzzone, Tyler Pelle, Eric Larour

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

1citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model.Nature communications · 2026
Article

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Mattia PoinelliJoint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. mattiap@ucla.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0637-2166

Eric RignotUniversity of California, Irvine, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3366-0481

Hélène SeroussiThayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9201-1644

Joshua CuzzoneJoint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.

Tyler PelleScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.

Eric LarourJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4009-4238

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Thwaites Glacier is a major contributor to Antarctic mass loss and a key source of uncertainty in future sea-level rise. Ocean-driven melting at its grounding line drives rapid retreat, yet most models treat the transition between grounded and floating ice as a sharp boundary, neglecting kilometer-scale seawater intrusions that develop as the grounding line migrates and forms a grounding zone. Here, we show that actively-melting grounding zones are required to reproduce nearly three decades of observed retreat, thinning, and acceleration of Thwaites Glacier in a calibrated ice-sheet model, with successful reconstruction occurring only when grounding zones are represented as 2-5 km wide regions. Extending this model forward, we show that grounding-zone processes govern glacier's detachment from stabilizing seafloor ridges, enabling unpinning as early as 2038 and producing up to 30 ± 6 mm of global mean sea-level rise by 2100 - approximately double previous projections even without additional climate warming.

Identifiers

PMID42864339

DOI10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1

PMCPMC13658800

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.