The Cost of Self-Sufficiency: Could New Zealand be Self-Sufficient in Food Consumption?

Ensuring that New Zealand can sustainably meet its future food needs requires an understanding of the interaction between domestic demand trends, trade and the capacity of national production systems. Although New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy, meat, fruit and other primary products, rising food insecurity, changing dietary preferences and increasing exposure to geopolitical and climate-related shocks have renewed interest in the resilience of domestic food supply. Using national consumption data (2010-2023) and production and yield data (2000-2024), we assessed temporal trends across OECD-FAO food groups and projected consumption and production to 2045. We then quantified land requirements needed to meet projected demand and compared these with the availability of highly and moderately suitable land, alongside a regional economic assessment of land-use change. Results showed that New Zealand production exceeded domestic demand for most food groups, with projected deficits concentrated in cereals and legumes, nuts and seeds, and smaller shortfalls in fruits. Much of the projected cereal deficit was associated with animal feed demand rather than direct human consumption. The land and economic costs of addressing domestic shortfalls were small, suggesting that land availability is unlikely to constrain future domestic food production or any moves to greater self-sufficiency. Instead, maintaining food security may depend more strongly on processing infrastructure, storage and distribution networks, market incentives and equitable access to nutritious foods. Although the direct impact of changes in domestic production on food security is limited compared to demand-side issues, there are potential changes to production, processing and distribution that would improve resilience to external shocks to the food system.