ArticleScience in One Health2026
Macroecological synchronization of vector-borne diseases under climate variability in Colombia.
Article in Science in One Health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Climate variability may synchronize vector-borne diseases across distinct transmission systems. This study evaluates climatic coherence among malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis, and Chagas disease in Colombia and projects changes in environmental suitability under future climate scenarios. Methods: National surveillance, climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic data from 1980 to 2025 were analyzed using generalized additive models, distributed lag nonlinear models, and wavelet coherence. Annual series were used for interannual analyses, whereas monthly epidemiological and climatic series were used to evaluate delayed associations. Ecological niche models for selected vector species were projected to 2035 under three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate scenarios. Results: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was associated with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity anomalies. Incorporating ENSO variability improved model performance for malaria and cutaneous leishmaniasis beyond models based only on local climatic predictors. Delayed climatic responses differed among diseases; the most robust association was observed for malaria, with a 1 °C increase in temperature anomaly associated with 28.3% higher incidence over 3-8 months (relative risk [RR] = 1.28; 95% confidence interval [ Conclusion: ENSO was associated with macroecological synchronization across transmission systems, although climatic responses differed among diseases. Future projections indicate spatial reorganization rather than uniform expansion, supporting integrated, climate-informed surveillance in areas of overlapping environmental suitability.
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