ArticleOral and maxillofacial surgery2026
Global burden of lip and oral cavity cancer attributable to behavioral risk factors, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis based on the GBD 2021 database.
Article in Oral and maxillofacial surgery, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundLip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) is a major global public health issue, with tobacco and alcohol as key modifiable behavioral risk factors. This study analyzed global LOC burden trends (1990-2021) and predicted future burden through 2051.
methodsData were from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, including behavioral factor-attributable age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) and mortality rate (ASMR). Joinpoint regression identified trend changes; Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models assessed age, period, and cohort effects. Health inequalities were evaluated via Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index (CI). A Bayesian APC model projected burden to 2051.
resultsIn 2021, global ASDR and ASMR were 16.75 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12.76, 20.66) and 0.60 (95% UI: 0.46, 0.75) per 100,000. Males had higher ASDR (26.94; 95% UI:19.27, 34.36) and ASMR (0.97; 95% UI:0.70, 1.24) than females (7.22 ; 95% UI: 5.55, 9.18 and 0.28; 95% UI: 0.21, 0.35). High SDI regions showed ASR declines; low-middle SDI regions had slower reductions or increases. Tobacco was the leading risk factor, with the heaviest burden in low-middle SDI regions and South Asia. Health inequalities shifted burden to lower socio-economic groups. Projections (2051) show males will have higher ASDR (27.59; 95% CI: 5.37, 49.81]) and ASMR (1.04 ; 95% CI: 0.17, 1.91).
conclusionBehavioral risk factors, particularly tobacco, drive global LOC burden. Strengthening tobacco/alcohol control, promoting early detection, and reducing socioeconomic disparities are crucial for prevention.
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