ArticleChinese medical journal pulmonary and critical care medicine2026
Trends in lung cancer burden, risk factors, and disease projections in China and the United States, 1990-2023.
Article in Chinese medical journal pulmonary and critical care medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Lung cancer is among the most burdensome malignancies worldwide, with marked disparities between China and the United States in terms of its epidemiological characteristics, risk factors, and prevention outcomes. In this study, the long-term trends in lung cancer burden and risk factors in China and the United States from 1990 to 2023 were systematically analyzed using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2023 data, and disease burden was projected through 2050, aiming to provide evidence for optimizing lung cancer prevention and control strategies in both countries. Methods: Data, including incident cases, deaths, prevalence cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) for lung cancer in China and the United States, along with data on smoking, air pollution, occupational exposure, and metabolic and dietary risk factors, were extracted from the GBD 2023 database. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). The three-factor Das-Gupta decomposition analysis was used to quantify independent contributions of population size, population aging, and epidemiological change to variations in the absolute case burden of lung cancer in China and the United States, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project disease burden trends from 2024 to 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2023, the numbers of lung cancer incident cases, deaths, prevalent cases and DALYs in China increased substantially and were far greater than those in the United States by 2023; the ASIR remained relatively stable (36.91 Conclusions: From 1990 to 2023, China and the United States exhibited diametrically opposite lung cancer burden trajectories. China remains in a phase of increasing risk factors and rising absolute case burden, whereas the United States has entered a phase of comprehensive risk factor control and sustained burden reduction. China should implement long-term stringent tobacco control, strengthen ambient PM
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