ArticleUnited European gastroenterology journal2026
Discontinuing Surveillance of Low-Risk Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms in Routine Practice: An External Application of the "Trivial" Criteria and the Resources it Would Release in Fourteen Health Systems.
Article in United European gastroenterology journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSurveillance of low-risk branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms is usually lifelong. Criteria to stop it after 5 years of stability in older patients have not been tested outside the center that devised them, nor has their economic value been measured.
objectiveTo test these criteria in an independent cohort and measure the lesions missed and the resources released.
methodsSingle-center cohort of patients with a low-risk lesion at diagnosis was followed for at least 12 months with cross-sectional imaging at baseline and during surveillance. The outcome was any new worrisome feature or high-risk stigma. Risk after stability was estimated by conditional analysis. Released resources were valued at the marginal cost beyond the fifth year and priced with fourteen tariffs. Sensitivity analyses addressed discounting, horizon, adherence and basket composition.
resultsAmong 392 patients followed for 2375 person-years, 66 (16.8%) developed a new feature; three had high-grade dysplasia or carcinoma, and none died of the neoplasm. The 5-year risk of a new feature did not fall with stability (14.3% after 2 years, 12.5% after five), but no resection and no high-grade lesion occurred after 4 years. Discontinuation would have discharged 101 patients (25.8%), releasing 298 person-years and 79,316 euro per 1000 patients entering surveillance, with no high-grade lesion missed. Across health systems, the same rule released 42,000 to 170,000 euros.
conclusionDiscontinuation missed no high-grade lesion, although the upper bound of that rate remained 0.84 per 100 person-years. The resources released varied more than fourfold between health systems and must be recomputed locally.
Indexed as
Identifiers
42852691What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.