Improving predictions of insect harassment for barren-ground caribou in the Arctic.

Many populations of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) have declined or are declining, which is concerning given their ecological role in Arctic ecosystems and their societal role in northern communities. Insect harassment is an important driver of the behavior, energetics, and demographic rates of caribou, and yet, due to challenges in predicting harassment, there is limited understanding of how it is responding to changing Arctic conditions. We investigated environmental correlates of mosquito (Culicidae) and oestrid fly (Oestridae) harassment for the Porcupine caribou herd, with the aim of improving our ability to predict harassment. We collected field observations of mosquito activity and used video collars to detect oestrid fly activity across the summer range, which spans the Alaska-Yukon border. Additionally, we documented the composition of harassing insects collected in malaise traps using DNA metabarcoding. We developed predictive mosquito and oestrid fly harassment models using remotely sensed variables relevant to the insects' biology within a nonlinear modeling framework. We then used the top mosquito and oestrid fly models to hindcast predictions of harassment during 1950-2024 and investigate long-term changes in severity and phenology. The top mosquito harassment model included wind speed, temperature, days since snowmelt, precipitation, topographic position, and soil moisture. The top oestrid fly harassment model included temperature, cumulative growing degree days, and time of day. Harassment of both insects was limited at low temperatures (<10°C), with mosquitoes being additionally limited at high temperatures (>22°C) and wind speeds (>7 m/s). The phenology of mosquito and oestrid fly harassment exhibited curvilinear trends across the summer, peaking in midsummer based on the number of days since snowmelt and cumulative growing degree days, respectively. Mosquito harassment also increased with greater soil moisture, precipitation, and at lower relative elevations. Hindcasting indicated that insect harassment notably intensified and advanced over time. Intensifying harassment could decrease caribou foraging opportunities and body condition, and advancing harassment is likely to increasingly overlap with the calving season when calves are most vulnerable. Our results highlight climate-driven changes in insect harassment and provide improved indices for predicting harassment in the Arctic for future applications.