ArticleInternational journal of women's health2026
Modeled Burden and Trends of Infertility Among People Aged 15-49 Years in the Original BRICS Countries: Comparisons with G7 and Global Estimates, 1990-2023, with Projections to 2050.
Article in International journal of women's health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Infertility is a major global reproductive health challenge. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), representing over 40% of the world's population, have undergone profound social and demographic transitions, yet infertility burden and trends in these countries remain incompletely characterized. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, we assessed the prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of infertility in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian projection were used to evaluate temporal trends, contributing factors, and future burden through 2050. Estimates were compared with G7 countries and global averages. Results: In 2023, BRICS countries accounted for an estimated 106.18 million prevalent infertility cases, representing 51.40% of global cases. The point estimate of age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) in BRICS was 6134.24 per 100,000 population, numerically higher than those in G7 countries and globally. Across BRICS, both estimated ASPR and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) were approximately threefold higher in females than in males. Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth was the largest contributor to the increase in DALYs in BRICS, followed by epidemiological change. Cause-specific analysis showed that other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) consistently ranked among the leading categories, while polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) exhibited an upward shift in relative ranking over time. Exploratory trend-based projections suggest that by 2050, the modeled ASPR in BRICS countries may remain higher than in G7 countries but lower than the global average. Conclusion: Infertility remains a major reproductive health challenge in BRICS countries, with substantial heterogeneity across countries. These findings highlight the need for context-specific strategies to reduce the infertility burden.
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