The dividend period of climate change-related mortality in China is coming to an end.

Health risks posed by temperature have aroused concern among scientists and the public. Previous studies have consistently projected a downward trend in the cold-related health burden and an upward trend in the heat-related burden under climate change. However, the temporal trend of the net effect of temperature and the existence of a descent phase for adaptation remain unclear. Here, we propose a new concept, the dividend period of climate change-related mortality, defined as the period when the net health effect of temperature exhibits a downward trend. We project a region-specific dividend period in China under climate change and adaptability scenarios. The results indicate that human adaptability substantially influences the temperature-mortality association and that the dividend period varies markedly by region and urbanization. After considering adaptability and population changes, the dividend period in the central and western regions has either ended or is coming to an end under most scenarios and will end before the 2050s in the northeastern region. In contrast, the dividend period in the eastern region will extend to the end of the 21st century but will soon end under certain scenarios. Our findings highlight the urgent need for more effective climate change mitigation and adaptation actions, particularly in regions at the end of the dividend period in the near future.