ArticleFrontiers in plant science2026
Climatic suitability and future dynamics of test-weight-defined high-quality wheat in China under climate change.
Article in Frontiers in plant science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: Climate change is expected to affect crop production and grain quality by altering the environmental conditions that define crop climatic niches. However, the spatial distribution and future dynamics of climatic suitability for test-weight-defined high-quality wheat in China remain insufficiently understood. This study aimed to characterize the climatic suitability of high-test-weight (High-TW) wheat and assess its potential changes under future climate scenarios. Methods: High-TW wheat was defined as wheat with a test weight (TW) ≥ 750 g L Results: The model showed strong discrimination under random holdout evaluation, with a mean test AUC of 0.936 and a continuous Boyce index of 0.9702. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) was the dominant predictor, contributing 55.3% to the model, indicating the importance of winter thermal conditions in the climatic niche associated with High-TW wheat. Under the 1970-2000 baseline climate, high-suitability areas were mainly concentrated in the north-central Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, broadly corresponding to traditional production regions of strong- and medium-strong-gluten wheat. Under the BCC-CSM2-MR projections, the broad spatial pattern remained relatively stable, while changes occurred mainly in the composition and peripheral distribution of suitability classes. By 2081-2100, high-suitability area increased under all four scenarios, with the largest relative increase under SSP126 (+12.35%). Centroid shifts were modest and scenario-dependent rather than proportional to emission intensity, with the largest late-century displacement reaching approximately 48 km under SSP370. Discussion: Future climate change may primarily reorganize the internal structure of climatic suitability while maintaining the broad national-scale pattern of High-TW wheat suitability. These findings provide a national-scale climatic-suitability perspective for High-TW wheat zoning, regional adaptation, and future production-planning assessments in China.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.