ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026
Beyond BMI: an interpretable integrated body composition index from low-dose chest CT for all-cause mortality risk stratification: a multicentre study.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Body composition is recognized as a major determinant of health outcomes, but its multidimensional nature makes clinical adoption challenging. We sought to develop and validate a body composition index (BCI) for all-cause mortality risk assessment, integrating variables of six body composition tissues. Methods: We analyzed 28509 consecutive patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging with routine low-dose chest CT attenuation correction (CTAC) scans acquired during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) at 12 centers across four countries. An artificial intelligence-based BCI was developed in a cohort of 15037 patients' CTACs by integrating the CT-derived metrics of bone, skeletal muscle, and four adipose tissue compartments, coronary artery calcium score, and basic demographic variables (age, sex, BMI). The performance of BCI for mortality prediction was validated in an internal cohort of 6444 patients and an external cohort of 7028 patients by prognosis, calibration, net benefit, and explainability. Model-based simulation of tissue metrics modification was performed to evaluate estimated mortality risk reduction. Findings: During a median of 3.5 (IQR [1.9, 5.1]) years, 4697 (16%) patients died. In the external testing cohort, the BCI demonstrated excellent discrimination for mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78 (95% CI [0.76, 0.79]) and Harrell's concordance index 0.75 [0.73, 0.76]), calibration, and net benefit overall and across pre-specified subgroups stratified by patient characteristics and imaging protocols. Visceral adipose tissue attenuation was the most influential body composition measure, followed by skeletal muscle volume. Simulated improvement in body composition was associated with significant mortality risk reduction. Interpretation: An index combining six body composition measures obtained opportunistically from routine chest CT provides robust mortality risk stratification. By converting complex body composition information into a single interpretable score, the BCI can facilitate clinical implementation of opportunistic CT biomarkers and guide individualized preventive strategies.
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