ArticleBMJ open2026
Persistence of cardiovascular risk factor changes after the great recession: fixed effects analysis of prospective cohort data from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveMultiple prospective cohort studies, including the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA), have documented elevations in cardiovascular risk factors after the Great Recession (GR) of 2008, despite other studies that report mortality declines after the GR. It is possible that the deleterious effects of the GR on cardiovascular risk profiles are short-lived and reversed. We examine whether risk factor elevations seen in MESA in the 2010-2011 wave persist into the 2016-2018 wave of data collection.
designIndividual fixed effects (IFE) analysis of prospective cohort data from MESA, with rate of change in the risk factor (from wave 2 to later waves) as the dependent variable, effectively controlling for individual-specific linear trends in ageing and all time-invariant characteristics. Models included controls for time-varying characteristics.
settingCommunities centred around Baltimore, Maryland; Chicago, Illinois; Forsyth County, North Carolina; Los Angeles, California; New York City, New York; and St. Paul, Minnesota.
participantsAll MESA participants who participated in at least two pre-GR waves and both post-GR waves; n=3101 (47% men, 25% African American, 21% Hispanic, 13% Asian). OUTCOMES: Primary: Systolic blood pressure (SBP), pulse pressure (PP), fasting blood glucose, serum C-reactive protein (CRP). Secondary: Serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and Body Mass Index (BMI)
resultsMean SBP and PP in 2016-2018 were greater by 8.6 (95% CI 5.9 to 11.4) and 8.0 (95% CI 6.0 to 9.9) mm Hg, respectively, than predicted by individual-specific pre-GR linear ageing trends, and fasting blood glucose was 6.3% higher (95% CI 4.6 to 8.1). In comparison, corresponding increases in 2010-2011 were 2.5 and 3.0 mm Hg and 3.3%. CRP increased by 29.7% (95% CI 21.8 to 38.2) in 2010-2011 and 45.1% (95% CI 28.3 to 64.2) in 2016-2018. Mean BMI did not change in 2010-2011 but decreased by 0.5 kg/m CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Post-GR increases in blood pressure, blood glucose and CRP in the USA not only persisted for 8-10 years after the GR but also grew in magnitude. In contrast, mean BMI and mean LDL-C reduced post-GR. Further studies are needed to uncover mechanisms (behavioural or otherwise) underlying the BMI and LDL-C reductions seen here, and the mortality consequences of these risk factor changes.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.