ArticleScience advances2026
A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia.
Article in Science advances, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Monsoon rainy seasons shape water supply and flood hazard across northern East Asia, but their long-term variability remains poorly understood because few daily rainfall records extend beyond the instrumental era. Here, we reconstruct rainy-season onset, retreat, and duration from a 256-year daily precipitation record for Seoul (1770-2025), providing an unusually long view of seasonal monsoon behavior. The reconstruction reveals structured quasi-decadal to multidecadal variability in rainy-season duration, indicating that recent rainy-season lengthening over northern East Asia is consistent with the latest positive excursion of a recurrent multidecadal modulation rather than a purely isolated modern anomaly. Coupled with warming-associated intensification of extreme rainfall, this prolonged-duration phase has elevated the compound-hazard probability, with recent probability peaks exceeding the long-term mean of ∼25% in Seoul. Exploratory near-term outlooks suggest that rainy-season duration in northern East Asia is likely to remain prolonged toward mid-century, sustaining heightened compound hydroclimatic hazard when seasonally extended overlaps with intensified event-scale rainfall.
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