ArticleBritish journal of cancer2026
Trends in incidence and prevalence of patients living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer: a retrospective cohort study.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundTherapeutic advances have improved the survival of incurable cancer patients, creating a growing population living long-term with incurable cancer. However, little is known about their epidemiological characteristics. We aimed to examine trends in annual incidence and prevalence among patients living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer in the Netherlands and to describe additional relevant sociodemographic and clinical characteristics among patients diagnosed in recent years.
methodsA population-based, retrospective cohort study using data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry was performed. Adults (≥18 years) diagnosed with de novo metastatic solid tumors in 2000-2021 who survived ≥2 years after their diagnosis were included. Annual incidence, prevalence, key demographic, and tumor characteristics were calculated.
resultsAnnual incident cases of patients living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer increased from 1298 (2000) to 5398 (2021), representing 12.0-22.6% of incurable cancer diagnoses. In February 2024, at least 18,466 patients in the Netherlands were living long-term with de novo metastatic incurable cancer (1 per 1000 inhabitants). Mean age was 64 years (SD 12), 59.4% were male, and 55.8% (n = 10,310) were alive 2- < 5 years after diagnosis, 31.0% (n = 5721) 5- < 10 years, and 13.2% (n = 2435) ≥ 10 years. The most common tumor types were prostate (35.6%), lung (20.2%), breast (14.4%), and colorectal cancer (6.3%).
conclusionSubstantial increases in the incidence and prevalence were identified, reflecting a shift toward prolonged survival within the incurable cancer population. Greater awareness and research are needed to inform care for this emerging group.
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