ArticleJournal of inflammation research2026
A Non-Endoscopic Dynamic Nomogram for Atrophic Gastritis Risk Stratification Based on Serum Indicators and Clinical Factors.
Article in Journal of inflammation research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Atrophic gastritis (AG) is a key precancerous lesion in gastric carcinogenesis, underscoring the need for non-endoscopic screening tools to improve early detection. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for AG based on serum indicators and clinical factors. Methods: This single-center retrospective study enrolled 520 patients who underwent gastroscopy with biopsy at Shaoxing Second Hospital between January 2023 and December 2025. AG severity was classified via the Kimura-Takemoto system (no/mild: C0-C1, n=349; moderate/severe: C2-C3 and O-type, n=171). Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors. The performance of the resulting predictive model was evaluated, and decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility across a range of threshold probabilities. An interactive dynamic nomogram was created for real-time risk calculation. Results: Multivariate analysis identified four independent predictors of moderate/severe AG: older age (OR = 1.082, P < 0.001), elevated neutrophil count (NE) (OR = 2.036, P = 0.043), decreased fibrinogen (FIB) (OR = 0.56, P < 0.001), and elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (OR = 1.171, P = 0.011). The predictive model demonstrated good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.780) and was further evaluated in an independent 94-patient inter-campus cohort (AUC = 0.705), confirming its discriminatory ability within the same hospital system. Conclusion: This non-endoscopic model incorporating age, NE, FIB, and CEA provides a practical tool for AG risk stratification, As a single-center retrospective model, it requires further multi-center prospective validation before clinical implementation; nevertheless, it may help guide endoscopic surveillance decisions and contribute to the early prevention of gastric cancer.
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