Water Quality Improvements and Hydrogeomorphic Change Over 20 Years Contributed to Macrophyte Community Recovery in the Upper Mississippi River.

Several large rivers across the globe have recently undergone noticeable improvements to water quality. Yet, the cascading ecological consequences for aquatic life, including macrophytes, are largely unknown, owing to the lack of suitable long-term data and the difficulty of modelling community-level responses. Our study leveraged multiple big datasets from 1998 to 2019 within a 400-km stretch of the Upper Mississippi River in the United States, which experienced major changes to hydrogeomorphology, water quality, and climate during the 22-year study. These decadal changes resulted from both natural processes, such as increased discharge and hydrologic connectivity, and targeted management actions, including water quality improvements and restorations. Using joint species distribution models, we showed how changes to hydrogeomorphology and water quality increased macrophyte taxonomic and ecological (trait) diversity at a macroscale. We uncovered substantial macrophyte community recovery as evidenced by increased species prevalence and diversity, as well as favorable community trait shifts from undesirable free-floating plants towards desirable submersed plants. Submersed species were positively associated with water quality improvements (specifically, reduced concentrations of total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and total suspended solids). However, total nitrogen concentration modestly increased over the 22-year period and nearly all macrophyte species were locally absent or negatively affected by high nitrogen values. Pollination mode and life form traits responded to environmental changes; as examples, submersed plants recovered with water quality improvements and epihydrophilous plants that pollinate on the water's surface increased with hydrogeomorphic connectivity. Water quality improvements explained approximately 25%-40% of the macrophyte community's temporal variation. Other major environmental drivers of macrophyte distribution included spatial variations of water depth and velocity. Macrophyte community assembly was shaped partially by strong temporal changes in hydrogeomorphology and water quality, and to a greater extent the spatial habitat heterogeneity within the large riverscape.