ArticleCommunications earth & environment2026
Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot.
Article in Communications earth & environment, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
It is becoming increasingly likely that meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement will involve a period of temperature overshoot. Understanding the effect of overshoot on climate outcomes requires an assessment of the reversibility of climate changes caused by overshooting global temperature levels. Here, using an intermediate-complexity Earth system model, we quantify the short-term reversibility of a suite of climate variables across an ensemble of 42 pairs of overshoot and baseline scenarios. For highly irreversible climate variables like permafrost and ocean changes, we show that the outcome of overshoot is linearly related to the time-integrated overshoot magnitude, which we define here as the degree-years of temperature overshoot. Our results show that degree-years of overshoot can be used to predict the changes of a range of irreversible ocean and permafrost variables in overshoot scenarios relative to a baseline scenario, therefore offering important insights into the risks of overshooting climate targets.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.