Divergent range dynamics among non-native Coleoptera: climate drivers and poleward expansion in multiple species.

Introduction: The expansion and contraction of species ranges result from population dynamics, species interactions, and environmental responses. As temperatures rise at high latitudes, some temperate species may be shifting poleward. As non-native species expand in range they threaten native biodiversity and disrupt ecosystem functioning, making range dynamics critical to understand for effective control programs. Methods: This study examined the dynamics of the southern geographic limit of non-native Coleoptera species in Chile. Using occurrence data from 25 species recorded between 2007 to 2022, we evaluated how the southern range limit of each species responds to environmental variables, and whether the observed southward displacements are consistent with the regional climate trends. Results: Model outputs provide significant evidence that the southern range limit dynamics of at least 11 species are linked to seasonal and annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In addition, nine species already showed significant southward expansion, with displacements ranging from 200 to 1400 km between the minimum and maximum recorded southern limits. Discussion: The results shed light on the range dynamics of non-native species in the southern cone of South America and can help design containment strategies that minimize the impacts of these non-native species on austral, more pristine ecosystems.