Observational studyWorld journal of urology2026
Surrogacy of intermediate clinical endpoints for overall survival in BCG-naïve high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
Observational study in World journal of urology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
43 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionRecent trials in BCG-naïve high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) have added immunotherapy to BCG, often using event-free survival (EFS) as the primary endpoint. However, neither EFS nor progression-free survival (PFS) has been validated as a surrogate for overall survival (OS) in this setting.
methodsWe retrospectively analyzed data from 18 international centers, including patients with BCG-naïve HR-NMIBC treated between 2001 and 2025. Adequate BCG exposure (International Bladder Cancer Group criteria) was the treatment contrast for its effects on intermediate clinical endpoints (ICEs) and OS, using a 12-month landmark approach and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Surrogacy was assessed with: (1) adapted Prentice criteria, with time-varying ICEs in IPTW-adjusted Cox models for OS; and (2) an emulated two-stage meta-analytic framework estimating individual-level association (Kendall's τ) and pseudo-trial-level surrogacy (R
resultsOf 3384 patients, 3153 entered the landmark analysis; 2697 (85.5%) received adequate BCG. Median follow-up was 50 months (IQR 17-77). Adequate BCG was associated with improved OS (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.83) and lower risks of PFS events (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and EFS events (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.40-0.58). Both ICEs were independently associated with OS, but adjusting for each did not fully attenuate the BCG effect. Individual-level association with OS was strong for PFS (τ = 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.83) and EFS (τ = 0.71, 95% CI 0.66-0.75). Pseudo-trial-level surrogacy was moderate, with median R
conclusionsIn this exploratory, hypothesis-generating analysis, PFS and EFS were strongly associated with OS at the individual level but failed to demonstrate robust pseudo-trial-level surrogacy. These endpoints may not fully capture treatment effects on OS, warranting caution when interpreting ICE-driven trial results in BCG-naïve HR-NMIBC.
Indexed as
Identifiers
42823574What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.