ArticleJAMIA open2026
Evaluating the validity and performance of a modifiable prediction model to predict new long-term opioid use in prescription drug monitoring programs.
Article in JAMIA open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Objective: Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) offer a promising data source for the development of clinical decision support (CDS) systems to guide opioid prescribing, but most PDMP agencies lack capacity for in-house model development-instead relying on third-party tools. This study aims to externally validate a PDMP-based model, developed using 2018 California PDMP records, to predict new long-term use among Kentucky opioid-naïve patients and compare its performance to Kentucky-specific machine learning (ML) models. Materials and Methods: We identified opioid-naïve Kentucky residents who filled an index pill opioid prescription between 2021 and 2023 (development cohort: 2021-2022; validation cohort: 2023). The California model was updated via logistic calibration and evaluated against 5 newly developed Kentucky ML models (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO], elastic net, deep neural network, random forest, XGBoost) using discrimination and calibration metrics. Results: Among 985 317 opioid-naïve patients, 33 298 (3.4%) transitioned to new long-term opioid use. The updated California model achieved excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.919 [0.915-0.923]) and was calibrated up to the highest risk levels (calibration intercept: 0.010, [-0.021, 0.041]; slope: 0.997, [0.979, 1.014]), with negative predictive values exceeding 0.99. Performance was comparable to Kentucky-specific ML models, including the highest performer XGBoost (AUROC: 0.930 [0.926-0.933]). All models struggled with low positive predictive values (0.15-0.19). Conclusion: A California PDMP-derived prediction model transported successfully to Kentucky with minimal updating. Its strong comparative performance provides a feasible foundation for PDMP agencies to develop transparent, in-house CDS systems with potential clinical implications for safer and more individualized opioid prescribing.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.