ArticlePakistan journal of medical sciences2026
Progression of myopia among undergraduate students of Fatima Jinnah Medical University, Lahore.
Article in Pakistan journal of medical sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background and Objective: The global rise in myopia has become a significant public health concern, with a projected prevalence affecting nearly half of the world's population by 2050. Despite increasing prevalence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), longitudinal data on myopia progression, especially in high-risk academic cohorts, remain limited. This study investigates the five-year progression of myopia and its behavioral correlates among undergraduate female medical students in Pakistan. Methodology: A longitudinal prospective study was conducted at Fatima Jinnah Medical University, Lahore, including 304 students enrolled in the 2020 MBBS batch. Annual measurements of spherical equivalent refraction (SER), self-reported screen time, and study time were collected over five academic years, from January 2020 to December 2025. Descriptive statistics summarized SER progression and behavioral exposure. Linear mixed-effects models (LMM) assessed SER changes across time. Multivariable linear regression evaluated predictors of SER progression (ΔSER). Spearman's correlation and subgroup analyses examined associations with behavioral and demographic variables. Results: Of the 304 students, 48 had complete longitudinal SER data. The mean SER progressed from -1.66 D (SD ±2.41) at baseline to -2.73 D (SD ±1.78) after five years, with a mean ΔSER of -1.07 D (SD ±2.85). Baseline SER was a significant predictor of progression (β = -0.96; 95% CI: -1.20 to -0.73; p < 0.001). No significant associations were found between ΔSER and screen or study time. Subgroup analysis showed no difference in progression by family history of myopia. Conclusion: This study adds to the existing Pakistani literature on myopia among medical students by providing longitudinal data on refractive change over a period of five-year. Findings highlight baseline refractive error as the strongest determinant of progression, emphasizing the need for early detection and targeted surveillance in LMIC academic populations.
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