Observational studyBMJ paediatrics open2026
Trend analysis and Bayesian projection of childhood life-limiting conditions in Korea: insights into incidence and mortality.
Observational study in BMJ paediatrics open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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6 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveTo estimate long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of life-limiting conditions among children and young people in Korea from 2012 to 2022, and to project these trends through 2035.
designA population-based observational study using joinpoint regression for temporal trend analysis and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model with integrated nested Laplace approximation for projections.
settingNationwide data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service and national mortality statistics (2012-2022).
participantsChildren and young people in Korea diagnosed with life-limiting conditions.
main outcome measuresAge-standardised incidence rates and age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 population.
resultsBetween 2012 and 2022, the age-standardised incidence rate increased from 398.5 to 565.4 per 100 000, while the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 7.2 to 5.8. In 2022, non-cancer conditions had a 5.43 times higher incidence and 1.16 times higher mortality than cancer-related conditions. Incidence was consistently higher among females. Mortality declined overall; however, the previously declining mortality trend in non-metropolitan areas reversed during the COVID-19 period, although the subsequent increase was not statistically significant. Projections indicate that by 2035, the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates will reach 551.5 and 5.7 per 100 000, respectively.
conclusionsThe increasing incidence and changing mortality patterns of life-limiting conditions among children and young people in Korea indicate growing care needs. Enhancing paediatric palliative care strategies and national surveillance systems is required to address the future burden.
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