ArticlePloS one2026
Cardiovascular disease mortality in a Central-West Brazilian capital: A spatial, temporal, and ecological analysis.
Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
In Brazil, regional disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist, with no population-based study having examined CVD mortality at the municipal level in the Central-West region. This study analysed the epidemiological profile, temporal trends, spatial distribution, and socioeconomic correlates of CVD mortality in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil (2013-2022). A population-based ecological study used data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Five CVD groups were analysed: ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), arrhythmias (ARR), cardiomyopathies (CMP), and inflammatory heart diseases (INF). Temporal trends were assessed using Poisson, Prais-Winsten, and Joinpoint regression. Spatial distribution was examined through Kernel Density Estimation and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA). Socioeconomic correlates were assessed using Spearman's correlation with neighbourhood-level indicators. Of 59,392 registered deaths, 8,148 (13.7%) were CVD-related. IHD was the dominant cause (79.5%), with males accounting for 59.3% of deaths (IRR 1.59; 95% CI 1.46-1.74) and individuals aged ≥60 years representing 75.2%. Overall crude CVD mortality increased by 26.1% over the study period, with an estimated mean annual increase of 2.5% (APC + 2.5%/year; 95% CI 1.7-3.3; p < 0.001) and significant acceleration after 2019. A striking proportion of IHD deaths occurred outside hospital settings (67.3%), with home deaths alone surpassing hospital deaths (43.9% vs. 32.7%). Spatial analysis identified significant high-high mortality clusters in central-western neighbourhoods and low-low clusters in eastern neighbourhoods (13 and 5 neighbourhoods, respectively; Global Moran's I = 0.555, p < 0.001), with cluster patterns varying by disease group. Socioeconomic correlates showed a consistent pattern across most CVD groups, with higher mortality in more socioeconomically advantaged neighbourhoods, except for inflammatory heart disease, which showed the opposite pattern. This first municipal-level CVD mortality analysis in Central-West Brazil identified significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity and a high burden of out-of-hospital IHD deaths, providing actionable evidence for geographically targeted cardiovascular prevention strategies.
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