ArticleFrontiers in plant science2026
Climatic suitability and distribution prediction of
Article in Frontiers in plant science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: Methods: Using 92 spatially filtered occurrence records and 18 environmental variables, we developed species distribution models with 12 algorithms and constructed a weighted ensemble from models meeting the screening criterion. Potentially suitable habitats were projected for the current period and for three emission scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s, and key environmental variables and centroid shifts were analyzed. Results: Elevation and annual temperature range were the main environmental constraints. Under current conditions, moderate- and high-suitability habitats were concentrated mainly in the eastern and southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Total suitable area generally increased under future scenarios, mainly through expansion of low- and moderate-suitability habitats, whereas high-suitability habitat increased more slowly and accounted for a smaller proportion of the total suitable area. Centroid shifts varied among periods and scenarios. Discussion: Climate change may reorganize the potential suitability pattern of
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