ArticleThe Lancet. Oncology2026
Global burden of cancer attributable to infections in 2024: a worldwide incidence analysis.
Article in The Lancet. Oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundInfectious agents are an important preventable cause of cancer globally. To inform prevention efforts, we provide a comprehensive picture of cancer burden attributable to infections, including newly established, carcinogenic infectious agents and latest global cancer incidence estimates.
methodsIn this worldwide incidence analysis, we used data from the Global Cancer Observatory's Cancer Today (GLOBOCAN) database of cancer incidence in 2024 to estimate population-attributable fractions (PAFs), absolute numbers, and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) of new cancer cases attributable to 12 infectious agents classified as Group 1 carcinogens by the IARC Monographs Programme: Helicobacter pylori, human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C viruses (HCV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus, Schistosoma haematobium, human T-cell lymphotropic virus, Opisthorchis viverrini, Clonorchis sinensis, Merkel cell polyomavirus, and HIV. Estimates stratified by sex, country, and age group were aggregated by UN geographical subregion and World Bank income group.
findingsAn estimated 2·3 million new cancer cases were attributable to infections globally in 2024, which is equivalent to 12% of all cancer cases. The largest number of cases was attributable to H pylori (n=760 000, PAF 4%), followed by HPV (n=750 000, 4%), HBV (n=360 000, 2%), EBV (n=260 000, 1%), and HCV (n=160 000, <1%). The largest burden of infection-attributable cancer was in eastern Asia, with 990 000 cases (42% of the global total, ASIR 31·9 per 100 000 cases). ASIRs were also higher than the global average (22·7) in sub-Saharan Africa (28·5), central and eastern Europe (24·3), and southeastern Asia (23·1). Focused analysis of EBV-attributable cancers revealed regional variation in the distribution of cancer types.
interpretationOur findings highlight the importance of infection control to achieve cancer prevention. Scientifically proven, but often underused, approaches include HPV and HBV vaccination; testing and treatment of HIV, H pylori, HBV, and HCV; safe injection practices; access to condoms and pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV transmission; and screening of precancerous lesions for HPV-driven cervical and anal cancer. Our findings also inform the investment cases for research and development for new prevention tools, most notably for EBV.
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