Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42798381›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in oncology2026

Development and temporal validation of preoperative and combined preoperative-pathological models for lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer.

Jin Zhang, Lanyu Cai, Yunfei Kong, Zhongda Chen

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Article in Frontiers in oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

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4 authors.

Jin ZhangDepartment of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China.
Lanyu CaiDepartment of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China.
Yunfei KongEmergency Department, Xuancheng People's Hospital, Xuancheng, Anhui, China.
Zhongda ChenDepartment of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aim: To develop and temporally validate preoperative and combined preoperative-pathological models for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early gastric cancer (EGC). Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 501 patients with EGC. Patients treated from January 2014 to December 2021 formed the training cohort (n = 347; 39 LNM events), and those treated from January 2022 to June 2026 formed the temporal validation cohort (n = 154; 21 LNM events). All preprocessing, exploratory LCR cut-off derivation, variable selection, coefficient estimation, and model choice were performed in the training cohort. The locked models were then evaluated without refitting in the temporal validation cohort. Performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, calibration intercept and slope, decision curve analysis, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Conditional internal validation used 1,000 bootstrap samples with the final predictor sets held fixed. Results: The final preoperative model (PSL) included granulocyte count, albumin, LCR, tumor location, endoscopic ulceration, and long diameter. The combined model (Post-LR) included LCR, neurovascular invasion, long diameter, pathological ulceration, and differentiation. In temporal validation, the AUC was 0.730 (95% CI, 0.627-0.834) for PSL and 0.827 (95% CI, 0.723-0.932) for Post-LR. The corresponding Brier scores were 0.119 and 0.081. Compared with the pathology-only model, Post-LR had no statistically significant incremental benefit in temporal validation. An exploratory training-derived LCR cut-off of 2.20 separated risk in the training cohort but not in the temporal validation cohort. Conclusion: The preoperative and combined models provide complementary, hypothesis-generating risk estimates at different clinical stages. They should be used only as adjuncts to established ESD criteria and multidisciplinary judgment. External validation in prospective, real-world ESD cohorts is required before clinical implementation.

Indexed as

early gastric cancerendoscopic submucosal dissectionlymph node metastasisnomogrampathological factorspreoperative modeltemporal validation

Identifiers

PMID42798381
PMCPMC13612299

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.