Inferring Seasonal Modulation of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility from Cross-Country Environmental and Population-Level Predictors.

Ognjen Milicevic, Magdalena Djordjevic, Igor Salom, Marko Djordjevic

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Ognjen MilicevicInstitute for Medical Statistics and Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 15 Dr Subotica Street, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.

Magdalena DjordjevicInstitute of Physics Belgrade, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia.

Igor SalomInstitute of Physics Belgrade, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia.ORCID 0000-0002-1119-730X

Marko DjordjevicQuantitative Biology Group, Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 16, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.ORCID 0000-0002-2903-3119

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility is difficult to estimate directly from year-round epidemic data because interventions, behavior, reporting, immunity, and viral evolution change concurrently. We therefore asked whether cross-country differences observed during the initial exponential-growth phase could be used to infer country-specific seasonal modulation. Early-pandemic basic reproduction numbers (R

Indexed as

COVID-19SeasonsAlgorithmsBasic Reproduction NumberClimateHumansPandemicsbasic reproduction numberCOVID-19early-pandemic transmissibilityenvironmental epidemiologyepidemic modelingmachine learningSARS-CoV-2seasonal modulationultraviolet radiation

Identifiers

PMID42796647

DOI10.3390/pathogens15090879

PMCPMC13610035

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.