ArticleCureus2026
Motorcycle-Related Mortality in Brazil, 2000-2023: National Trends by Region, Sex, and Age.
Article in Cureus, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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10 authors.
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Abstract
Background Motorcyclist mortality has increased substantially in Brazil, but its long-term trajectory and variation across population groups remain incompletely characterized. We examined national trends from 2000 through 2023 by geographic region, sex, and age group. Methods We conducted a nationwide ecological time-series study of deaths among Brazilian residents assigned to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes V20-V29 in the Mortality Information System. Population denominators were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Crude and directly age-standardized rates were calculated using the 2022 census population as the standard. Weighted segmented log-linear regression estimated annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes with 95% CIs. Joinpoints were selected using a BIC-type criterion; 2020 was not prespecified. Differences in average slopes were assessed using negative binomial models with population offsets and year-by-group interactions. Results Between 2000 and 2023, 225,530 motorcyclist deaths were recorded. The age-standardized mortality rate increased from 1.40 to 6.25 per 100,000 population. Mortality increased during 2000-2006 (APC, 16.7%; 95% CI, 16.0%-17.3%), 2006-2010 (9.7%; 9.1%-10.2%), and 2010-2014 (2.9%; 2.5%-3.4%), declined during 2014-2020 (-2.3%; -2.6% to -2.0%), and increased during the 2020-2023 segment (4.9%; 4.2%-5.6%). In 2023, rates were highest in the Northeast (9.47), Central-West (8.80), and North (8.45). Men accounted for 89.2% of deaths. Adults aged 20-24 years had the highest 2023 rate and the largest absolute increase, whereas adults aged 50 years or older experienced the largest relative increases from lower baseline rates. Average log-linear slopes differed by region (Holm-adjusted p=0.0016) and age group (Holm-adjusted p<0.001). The year-by-sex interaction did not provide evidence of a difference in the average slope (Holm-adjusted p=0.30), although the segmented trajectories differed in timing. Conclusions Motorcyclist mortality increased more than fourfold, with nonlinear temporal changes and marked regional and age-related heterogeneity. Young adults bore the greatest absolute burden, whereas relative increases were largest at older ages from lower baseline rates. Population-based rates cannot distinguish changes in motorcycle exposure from changes in exposure-adjusted risk.
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