Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42786245›Full record

ArticleNature food2026

Armed conflict accelerates cropland loss and food insecurity worldwide.

Guangdong Li, Wei Qi, Siao Sun, Xiaoping Liu, Zhenbo Wang

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature food, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Guangdong LiKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. ligd@igsnrr.ac.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-6112
Wei QiKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. qiwei@igsnrr.ac.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2058-5985
Siao SunKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Xiaoping LiuGuangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4242-5392
Zhenbo WangKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. wangzb@igsnrr.ac.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5342-0613

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 42121001National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 42322108
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Armed conflict is an escalating threat to global food security yet its impact on cropland dynamics is poorly understood at global scale. Here we combine annual high-resolution cropland maps (2000-2020) with more than 460,000 conflict events across 155 countries to assess how armed conflicts affect cropland loss and food security. By 2020, conflict-exposed areas within 5 km of conflict events covered only 3% of global land but contained 6% of global cropland, indicating disproportionate exposure of agricultural land to conflict. Difference-in-differences estimates show that conflict exposure caused an average annual cropland loss of 14.46 ha per buffer-year and a 3% decline in cropland area. Losses were greatest in West Africa, Eastern Africa and Southeast Asia. Spatial matching analyses further indicate 23.7% greater cropland loss in conflict-affected areas than in comparable non-conflict areas. Preventing these losses could have supplied dietary energy sufficient for 255.54 million people annually.

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.