Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42786164›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Recent globally synchronous seasonal warm events unprecedented since 850 CE.

Jianping Duan, Fengqi Hao, Yixuan Zhou, Shaoteng Chen, Anqi Wang, Cunde Xiao, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Buwen Dong, Jürg Luterbacher, Peter A Stott and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Jianping Duan *State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. duanjp@bnu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0095-0714
Fengqi Hao *State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Yixuan Zhou *State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0001-6755-6543
Shaoteng ChenState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Anqi WangState Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Cunde XiaoState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1706-4794
Fredrik Charpentier LjungqvistDepartment of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0220-3947
Buwen DongNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911
Jürg LuterbacherLiebig Centre for Agroecology and Climate Impact Research, and Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany.
Peter A StottMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4853-7686
Elena XoplakiCMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) No. 41875113
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Spatially synchronous extreme warm events can amplify environmental and societal impacts by affecting multiple regions simultaneously. However, previous studies have largely focused on June-August (JJA) events during the instrumental period, limiting understanding of their seasonal prevalence and long-term evolution. Here, we examine globally synchronous seasonal warm events (GSSWEs) using seasonal mean near-surface air temperature (SAT) and introduce an Extremity Index (EI) that combines normalized local land SAT anomaly intensity with the spatial extent of land areas exceeding a specified SAT threshold. Using instrumental observations, paleo-reanalysis products and climate model simulations, we assess changes in global-land GSSWE extremity since 850 Common Era (CE). We find that GSSWEs have intensified sharply since the 1970s across all four seasons, reaching levels not found earlier in the multi-dataset records. Detection and attribution analyses indicate that anthropogenic forcing, dominated by greenhouse-gas forcing, is the main contributor to this recent intensification. Spatially, the tropics contribute greatly to the recent extremity of GSSWEs due to their lower intrinsic variability. These findings highlight that climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning need to consider the growing spatial coherence and intensity of seasonal warm extremes.

Identifiers

PMID42786164
PMCPMC13612820

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.